US unemployment aid applications stay at 370,000

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May 17, 2012

US unemployment aid applications stay at 370,000

CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABER,AP Economics Writer AP-Associated Press The Democrat Thu May 17, 2012, 10:22 AM CDT

Pauls Valley, Oklahoma — The number of people seeking U.S. unemployment

benefits was unchanged last week, suggesting modest but steady gains

in the job market.

The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly unemployment aid

applications stayed at a seasonally adjusted 370,000, the same level

as the previous week. The four-week average, a less volatile measure,

fell from roughly 380,000 to 375,000.

Applications for benefits surged in April to a five-month high of

392,000. They have fallen back since then and are near the lowest

levels in four years.

The decline suggests hiring could pick up in May after slumping in the

previous two months. When applications drop below 375,000 a week, it

generally suggests hiring is strong enough to lower the unemployment

rate.

"Although another decline would have been preferred, the results

weren't that bad," said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital

Markets, in a note to clients. "It does raise the possibility that we

may see a pickup in hiring in May."

The unemployment rate has fallen from 9.1 percent in August to 8.1

percent last month. Part of the reason for the drop is that employers

have added a million jobs over the past five months. But it has also

declined because some people gave up looking for work. The government

only counts people as unemployed if they are actively looking for a

job.

The pace of hiring slowed sharply in March and April, to an average of

135,000 jobs per month. That raised fears that the job market is

weakening.

But economists have cautioned that a warm winter led companies to move

up some hiring and accelerate other activity that normally wouldn't

occur until spring. That gave the appearance that the economy had

strengthened in January and February and weakened in early spring.

And temporary layoffs stemming from spring holidays likely pushed

unemployment benefit applications higher in April, economists noted.

If applications stay where they are or fall further, job growth should

pick up. The gains may not match those from earlier in the year, when

the economy averaged 252,000 jobs per month from December through

February. But several economists said they expect somewhere in the

range of 150,000 to 200,000 new jobs each month.

A jump in job openings supports the notion of stronger hiring in the

coming months. Employers advertised 3.74 million job openings in

March, the most since July 2008. It usually takes one to three months

for employers to fill openings.

"Rising job openings and relatively flat new filings for unemployment

benefits do not point to any underlying slowdown in job creation and

we would expect, therefore, a pickup in May from April's rather

subdued pace of employment growth," said John Ryding and Conrad

DeQuadros, analysts for RDQ Economics, in a note to clients.

The number of people on the unemployment benefit rolls is falling

steadily, largely because many states are ending some extended benefit

programs. The number of recipients dropped by almost 150,000 to 6.3

million in the week ended April 28, the latest data available.

Other signs suggest the economy is strengthening after its early spring lull.

Home construction rose to near a three-year high in April. And factory

output has risen in three of the year's first four months.

The gains, highlighted in data released Wednesday, suggest growth in

the April-June quarter is off to a good start.

Consumers are also finally seeing some relief from high gas prices.

The average price of a gallon of gas was $3.73 on Wednesday, according

to AAA. That's 18 cents less than a month ago.

So consumers should have more money for other purchases, which could

also boost second-quarter growth and help lift hiring. Consumer

spending drives roughly 70 percent of economic activity in the U.S.

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